My guess is that your risk of ruin with $10,000 is a little under 50%, but it all depends on the rules and your betting/counting strategy. My personal rule of thumb is that I won't play a shoe unless I have at least 5 of my maximum bets with me. This makes it unlikely for me to go broke while there is still a high count at the table.
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- The table shows the risk of ruin is 0.01% for 102 units, so would be just over 0.01% for 100. Perhaps this is too conservative, so the player considers playing 200 hands. The bet size is now $5000/200 = $25. The number of units is $1000/$25 = 40. Interpolating the table shows the risk of ruin would be 1.5%.
- Risk of Ruin (ROR): The mathematical chance of losing one’s entire bankroll. For more information Risk of Ruin click here. Round: In Blackjack, a Round starts with no cards on the table.
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
Blackjack Risk Of Ruin
Hello card counters,
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
Tell us the rules of the games and the count you are using. Are you wonging and/or using index play?
While we wait for that, the 40k is borderline for a 1-16 spread on the 8 deck game and a 1-8 spread on the double deck. I hope you'll say that you wong when possible and have learned at least the basic index plays.
Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator
Do you want to maximize your profit in a short-time? Or you want to optimize the total profit in a long period.
Simple advice will be to avoid the $50 table because I already know that you are over-betting your bankroll without even punching in the numbers.
More importantly, do you have the personality to handle the loss, which can last for months?-(8 deck game)
-between 60-75% penetration
-blackjack pays 3-2
-doubling allowed on any first 2 cards
-doubling after split allowed (except aces)
-dealer stands on all 17's
-can split any pair (up to 4 times) except aces
-late surrender allowed
-(2 deck game)
- not sure of all these rules yet but I know
-stand on all 17
-late surrender offered
I would not be wonging in or backcounting - but would leave table if negative count gets too high towards end of shoe.
As far as indexing - that's new to me but most likely would utilize that strategy.
I would be using the HI-Lo count initially -(as this is the count I have been practicing and familiar with)
I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
Hello card counters,
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
In my opinion:
1. Wong out aggressively to increase your win rate.
2. You need a higher max bet to make any real money. With a $250 max bet on an 8-deck game you are not making very much. IMO, you need to be willing to go up to $500 at the very least before blackjack is worthwhile (unless you have non-counting ways to get larger edges).
3a. You need a bigger bankroll (see #2).
3b. Always remember that playing 2 hands of half the size reduces variance but leaves your edge the same. eg, 2x$250 has the same edge as a $500 hand but only has the bankroll requirements of a $350 or $400 hand.
3c. Why are you comfortable with a 2% risk of ruin? 2% is not that unlikely. If I was making a living off of this, a 2% risk of ruin would scare the hell out of me.
4. Cover is overrated. This is controversial and many people who make a living doing this, and have a lot more experience than I do, disagree, so I accept that I may be wrong. It's still my opinion, though.
I am located in New York - and frequent Foxwoods a lot - I go there 3 days a week (to play poker) - Mohegan Sun is right next door - and I also visit Sands in PA on Mondays (to play poker tournaments)..
I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
The rules you gave were for Sands and not Foxwoods. Am I right?